NIPI Global23 · June 17, 2026 · Next release: July 15, 2026

Global NIPI Monthly Report

A real-time, news-based measure of inflationary pressure across 23 major economies, representing approximately 66% of global GDP. Updated daily, ahead of official statistics.

Global inflation has been a defining macro theme of recent years, and tracking its momentum in real time remains a challenge. The Global23 NIPI bridges that gap, offering a daily read on inflationary pressures well before official statistics catch up. This report presents the latest Global23 reading, its relationship with OECD headline CPI, and a short-term inflation forecast. It's free and open to all. Subscribers access the full daily series, country-level breakdowns, and real-time updates.

The Global23 NIPI (News Inflation Pressure Index) is built from the systematic analysis of news flows across 23 major economies. It classifies inflation-related articles as signalling either upward or downward price pressures, and summarises their balance into a diffusion index that fluctuates around 50. It is constructed as a 30-day rolling average, smoothing out day-to-day noise while remaining highly responsive to shifts in the inflation narrative.

Global23 NIPI (latest)

81.3

▼ 6.5 vs prev. month

Aug. CPI forecast y-o-y

5.8%

▼ 0.2 vs previous forecast

Sept. OECD forecast y-o-y

4.5%

▲ 1.2 vs previous forecast

Key Takeaways

The Global23 NIPI stands at 81.3, down 6.6 points from the previous month, signaling a moderation in news-based inflationary pressures from a very high level.
Both Energy and Core indicators have eased over the recent month but remain historically elevated, while Food price pressures rose further.
Given the lag between the NIPI and actual inflation releases, our model projects OECD year-on-year inflation will rise to 6.2% in September 2026, from 4.4% in April. The April inflation releases came in line with prior Global23 NIPI forecasts and the forecast further out is only very marginally revised down.
The NIPI continues to suggest significantly stronger inflation pressures than the recent OECD inflation forecast published in early June 2026.

Global23 NIPI, Historical Signal

Alternative Macro Signals

The chart traces the Global23 signal since January 2020, covering the post-pandemic inflation surge and its gradual normalisation. The sector-level breakdown (Core, Energy, Food) is also available for a more granular view of where pressures are building.

The NIPI peaked sharply in mid-2022, in line with the global inflation surge, before gradually moderating over the following two years. Since late 2025, it climbed sharply to a peak in the spring of 2026 and has since come off its highs, though the decline is not yet established as a trend. For a detailed description of how the Global23 aggregate is constructed, see our methodology note.

Global23 NIPI and OECD CPI

Alternative Macro Signals, OECD

The Global23 NIPI stands at 81.3 still well above historical norms despite a monthly decline. The chart overlays the NIPI with OECD headline CPI to highlight the lead-lag relationship between the two series.OECD headline CPI has moved higher in its most recent readings. This was widely anticipated given the energy price shock, and the NIPI had been tracking the same dynamic since early 2026.

A note on construction. CPI data is shown as of its initial release date, in order to avoid any look-ahead bias. For instance, the November 2025 CPI release was published on 12th January 2026 and is therefore reported on that date. NIPI values are not shifted, as they are known just a few hours after the end of each day.

CPI Inflation Forecast

Alternative Macro Signals, OECD

The chart compares our NIPI-based inflation forecast with the OECD Economic Outlook projection, a set of quarterly forecasts revised approximately twice a year, last updated in June 2026. The NIPI sits below its recent peak but remains elevated, and our forecast points to month-on-month inflation holding at a pace that keeps upward pressure on the year-on-year rate. Last month's inflation forecast came close to the figures released since, on both a monthly and an annual basis, as well as in the implied CPI level. The OECD has revised its path higher than in its May edition, reflecting the energy price shock, but still projects a flatter trajectory than our signal-based forecast over the same horizon.

The model projects a gradual continuation of the upward CPI trend over the coming months, driven by the elevated NIPI signal observed since early 2026. The ARIMAX projection is purely data-driven: it captures what the news signal implies for prices, but does not incorporate structural analysis or country-level intelligence. The two approaches are best read as complements rather than substitutes.

A note on construction. The forecast is generated by an ARIMAX(1,0,0) model of month-on-month CPI inflation, using NIPI_t-1 as exogenous variable. CPI levels are then reconstructed from the projected monthly rates. The model is re-estimated each month on the full available sample. For a full discussion of the forecasting framework and its performance, see our post.

Download Data

Here the full daily NIPI series since January 2018, covering Headline, Core, Energy and Food components across all 23 economies.