NIPI Global23 · August 19, 2026 · Next release: September 16, 2026

Global NIPI Monthly Report

A real-time, news-based measure of inflationary pressure across 23 major economies, representing approximately 66% of global GDP. Updated daily, ahead of official statistics.

The news-based Global23 NIPI offers a daily read on global inflationary pressures well before official statistics catch up. This monthly report introduces the latest Global23 reading, its relationship with OECD headline CPI, and a short-term inflation forecast. It is free and open to all. Subscribers access the full daily series, country-level breakdowns, and real-time updates.

The Global23 NIPI (News Inflation Pressure Index) is built from the systematic analysis of news flows across 23 major economies. It classifies inflation-related articles as signalling either upward or downward price pressures, and summarises their balance into a diffusion index that fluctuates around 50. It is constructed as a 30-day rolling average, smoothing out day-to-day noise while remaining highly responsive to shifts in the inflation narrative.

Global23 NIPI (latest)

80.4

▲ 0.8 vs prev. month

CPI Forecast y-o-y trend

+1.1 pp

▲ Jun-Nov 2026

Key Takeaways

The Global23 NIPI stands at 80.4, up 0.8 point in the last 30-days. It signals strengthening inflationary pressures from an elevated level.
Energy price pressures rebounded, while Core inflation pressures held steady at elevated levels.
Given the lag between the NIPI and actual inflation releases, our model projects that OECD year-on-year inflation could rise to 4.7% in October 2026 - slightly revised down from the earlier projection.
The NIPI forecast points to accelerating year-on-year inflation over the coming months, in contrasts with the OECD's June 2026 Economic Outlook which projected a gradual flattening.

Global23 NIPI, Historical Signal

Alternative Macro Signals

The chart traces the Global23 signal since January 2020, covering the post-pandemic inflation surge and its gradual normalisation. The sector-level breakdown (Core, Energy, Food) is also available for a more granular view of where pressures are building.

The NIPI peaked sharply in mid-2022, in line with the global inflation surge, before gradually moderating over the following two years. Since late 2025, it climbed sharply to a peak in the spring of 2026 and, despite pulling back, remains elevated with no clear sign of easing yet. For a detailed description of how the Global23 aggregate is constructed, see our methodology note.

Global23 NIPI and OECD CPI

Alternative Macro Signals, OECD

The Global23 NIPI stands over the 80 mark, still well above historical norms. The chart overlays the NIPI with OECD headline CPI to highlight the lead-lag relationship between the two series. OECD headline CPI has moved higher in its recent readings. This was widely anticipated given the energy price shock, and the NIPI had been tracking the same dynamic since early 2026.

A note on construction. CPI data is shown as of its initial release date, in order to avoid any look-ahead bias. For instance, the November 2025 CPI release was published on 12th January 2026 and is therefore reported on that date. NIPI values are not shifted, as they are known just a few hours after the end of each day.

CPI Inflation Forecast

Alternative Macro Signals, OECD

The chart compares our NIPI-based inflation forecast with the OECD Economic Outlook projection, last updated in June 2026. The NIPI sits below its recent peak but remains elevated, and our forecast points to month-on-month inflation holding at a pace that keeps upward pressure on the year-on-year rate. In the June Economic outlook, the OECD has revised its path higher than in its March edition, reflecting the energy price shock, but still projects a flatter trajectory than our signal-based forecast over the same horizon.

The model projects a gradual continuation of the upward CPI trend over the coming months, driven by the elevated NIPI signal observed since early 2026. The ARIMAX projection is purely data-driven: it captures what the news signal implies for prices, but does not incorporate structural analysis or country-level intelligence. The two approaches are best read as complements rather than substitutes.

A note on construction. The forecast is generated by an ARIMAX(1,0,0) model of month-on-month CPI inflation, using NIPI_t-1 as exogenous variable. CPI levels are then reconstructed from the projected monthly rates. The model is re-estimated each month on the full available sample. For a full discussion of the forecasting framework and its performance, see our post.

Download Data

Here the full daily NIPI series since January 2018, covering Headline, Core, Energy and Food components across all 23 economies.

Download NIPI G23 Daily Data (CSV) - Updated monthly

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