NIPI Global23 · September 16, 2026 · Next release: October 14, 2026

Global NIPI Monthly Report

A real-time, news-based measure of inflationary pressure across 23 major economies, representing approximately 66% of global GDP. Updated daily, ahead of official statistics.

The news-based Global23 NIPI offers a daily read on global inflationary pressures well ahead of official statistics. This monthly report shows a Global23 NIPI snapshot and compares it with the OECD headline CPI, and a short-term inflation forecast. It is free and open to all. Subscribers access the comprehensive daily time series, with country and sector level breakdowns, and real-time updates.

The Global23 NIPI (News Inflation Pressure Index) is built from the systematic analysis of news flows across 23 major economies. It classifies inflation-related articles as signaling either upward or downward price pressures, and summarises their balance into a diffusion index that fluctuates around 50. It is constructed as a 30-day rolling average, smoothing out day-to-day noise while remaining highly responsive to shifts in the inflation narrative.

Global23 NIPI (latest)

90.3

▲ 8.9 vs prev. month

CPI Forecast y-o-y trend

+2.0 pp

▲ Jul-Dec 2026

CPI Forecast m-o-m trend

+0.30 pp

▲ Jul-Dec 2026

Key Takeaways

The Global23 NIPI stands at 90.3, up 8.9 points in the last 30 days. It suggests stronger inflationary pressures from an already high base.
Energy is the main driver, with the Energy NIPI increasing from the low 60s to over 80, while the Core component adds to pressures too, rising from 80 to 85.
The gap with the OECD's June 2026 Economic Outlook keeps widening: our model projects year-on-year inflation at 6.2% in December 2026, against 4.4% for the OECD at that same date.

Global23 NIPI, Historical Signal

Alternative Macro Signals

The chart traces the Global23 signal since January 2020, covering the post-pandemic inflation surge and its gradual normalisation. The sector-level breakdown (Core, Energy, Food) is also available for a more granular view of where pressures are building.

For a detailed description of how the Global23 aggregate is constructed, see our methodology note.

Global23 NIPI and OECD CPI

Alternative Macro Signals, OECD

The Global23 NIPI has climbed above the 90 mark, far exceeding its historical average. The chart overlays the NIPI with OECD headline CPI to highlight the lead-lag relationship between the two series.

Note : CPI data is plotted at its publication date rather than at its reference month, in order to avoid any look-ahead bias. Each observation is shifted forward by 40 days, a uniform proxy for the OECD publication lag: the November 2025 reference month is therefore plotted in early January 2026, in line with its actual release. NIPI values are not shifted, as they are known just a few hours after the end of each day.

CPI Inflation Forecast

Alternative Macro Signals, OECD

The chart compares our NIPI-based inflation forecast with the OECD Economic Outlook projection, last updated in June 2026. With the NIPI on the rise and close to the spring peak, the forecast suggests month-on-month rates near 0.6% in the coming months, a pace consistent with year-on-year inflation moving towards 6% by the end of 2026. In the June Economic Outlook, the OECD has revised its path higher from the December edition, reflecting the energy price shock, but has still been projecting a flatter trajectory than our forecast.

The model forecastss a marked rise in CPI inflation in the coming months, following the the NIPI rebound since the summer. The ARIMAX projection is purely data-driven: it captures what the news signal implies for prices, but does not incorporate structural analysis or country-level intelligence. The two approaches are best read as complements rather than substitutes.

A note on construction. The forecast is generated by an ARIMAX(1,0,0) model of month-on-month CPI inflation, using NIPI_t-1 as exogenous variable. CPI levels are then reconstructed from the projected monthly rates. The model is re-estimated each month on the full available sample. For a full discussion of the forecasting framework and its performance, see our post.

Download Data

Here the full daily NIPI series since January 2018, covering Headline, Core, Energy and Food components across all 23 economies.

Download NIPI G23 Daily Data (CSV) - Updated monthly

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